ChainWhat it assumes · how to break it
Start
A developing country raises conditional cash transfers to poor families, such as Brazil's Bolsa Família, which pays families who keep their children in school and attend health checks.
1
As a result, the incomes of the poorest households rise, so fewer people live in absolute poverty and families can afford enough food.
absolute poverty
absolute poverty
Assumes: The payments reach the poorest households.
But: Where many people work in the informal sector without records, identifying poor families is hard, and corruption may divert payments.
2
At the same time, families must keep children in school to receive the payment, so attendance rises and fewer children are sent out to work.
conditionality · child labour
conditionality · child labour
Assumes: Schools exist within reach and have places.
But: In rural areas schools may be far away, overcrowded or short of teachers, so families cannot meet the condition.
3
Consequently, the next generation is healthier and better educated, so its human capital and productivity rise.
human capital · productivity
human capital · productivity
Best link to attack
Assumes: More time in school turns into real learning.
Assumes: More time in school turns into real learning.
But: If teaching quality is poor, extra years in school may add little to literacy and numeracy, so attendance rises but skills do not.
4
Therefore, the cycle of poverty is broken over time, raising living standards and the country's HDI through higher income, education and life expectancy.
poverty cycle · HDI
poverty cycle · HDI
Assumes: There are jobs for better-educated young people.
But: If the economy creates few formal jobs, educated workers may stay in low-productivity informal work or emigrate.
End
Absolute poverty falls and human development improves, shown by a higher HDI over time.
Evaluation chain
- E1However, the development gain depends on whether extra school attendance turns into real skills.
- E2If schools are underfunded, with large classes and poorly trained teachers, then children may attend for years and still leave with weak literacy and numeracy.
- E3As a result, their productivity and future earnings rise far less than attendance figures suggest.
- E4So conditional cash transfers do most for development when paired with investment in school and health quality, and much less when used alone.
Another way to attack it: Cash transfers relieve poverty quickly but do not create jobs, infrastructure or strong institutions on their own, so long-run development also needs investment and access to markets.
The gains in schooling and health take many years to show up in earnings, so the full development effect comes a generation later.
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Questions this answers
- Assess the effectiveness of conditional cash transfers in promoting development.
- Discuss the policies a developing country could use to reduce absolute poverty.
- Explain how higher incomes for poor families can improve human capital.
Diagram
No standard diagram. Use HDI components, school enrolment and absolute poverty figures for the country as evidence.
Reverse and related
Cash transfers cut → poorest families take children out of school to work → poverty passes to the next generation.